Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week staring down a wild macro environment after sealing its lowest weekly close in nearly two years.
As risk assets across the global economy take a hammering and the U.S. dollar surges, the largest cryptocurrency is on a limp footing.
September, having started out on bulls’ side, is now living up to its informal crypto market nickname — “Septembear” — and BTC/USD is currently down 6.2% since the start of the month.
The bad news keeps coming for hodlers, who are clinging to dormant coins in increasing numbers as the dollar runs rampant and mainstream appetite to diversify into riskier plays continues to evaporate.
With macro set to remain the key focus for everyone this week, Cointelegraph takes a look at what might lie in store for BTC price action.
In economic conditions that rival any major period of historical upheaval seen in the past century or more, here are some factors to take into account when assessing where Bitcoin could head next.
Weekly close sends BTC/USD back to November 2020
While not matching the previous week’s losses (3.1% versus 11%), the past seven days nonetheless managed to spark Bitcoin’s lowest weekly close since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
As the downside keeps coming, Bitcoin has thus turned back the clock to before the breakout, which took it beyond its prior halving cycle’s all-time high.
The sense of deja vu is unwelcome to the average hodler — the vast majority buying and cold storing over the past two years is now underwater.
“$BTC just made the lowest weekly close in this zone,” popular Twitter analyst SB Investments summarized after the close.
“Looks bearish with stocks looking to break support as well. But on the other side this is what everyone expects.”
Whether the markets could pull a surprise “max pain” move to the upside, liquidating short bias, is a key alternative argument for Bitcoiners. For popular trader Omz, the weekly close price of $18,800 even represents a convincing local bottom.
The RSI divergence has not gone unnoticed elsewhere, with trader JACKIS flagging its arrival last week.
“We only got two touches of the oversold territory in the past & they have always marked the exact bottom as well,” he tweeted at the time.
Fellow trading account IncomeSharks also maintained that a reversal could accompany the U.S. midterm elections in early November, but…