In a new report, VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush say that Solana’s founders have been a success story in blockchain scaling through experimentation and applied science.
“While other chains have chosen scaling paths that cleverly circumnavigate the limitations of distributed ledgers, Solana has instead chosen to push to the limits of technological feasibility problems and work backward from there. The Ethereum ecosystem and many others have chosen a modular vision where different blockchains specialize in the core functions of a layer-1 chain.
On the other hand, Solana has plowed ahead, trying to wring greater transaction throughput by optimizing every component of its own blockchain to be hyper-efficient. Consequently, Solana is vastly more capable than any of its legacy competitors regarding blockchain processing capabilities. Parallel to this, but much more importantly, Solana has translated its pioneering spirit into an ecosystem philosophy of risk-taking and techno-optimism.”
The analysts lay out three potential scenarios for Solana that could play out over the remainder of the 2020s: a bear, base and bullish case.
VanEck centers its base case around the idea that Solana accounts for about 30% of all crypto adoption in 2030. The analysts also forecast that SOL monetizes at about 20% the rate of ETH and achieves less than half of ETH’s market shares due to a “fundamental difference in community philosophy.”
If Solana manages to stand on its own feet and steal more market value away from Ethereum, VanEck has a bull case of $3,211 per SOL by 2030, about a 100x move from today’s prices.
“Were Solana to avoid Ethereum’s event horizon and achieve Ethereum-like dominance, our bull case reveals $51.8 billion in revenues and a $3,211 price target in 2030.”