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Bitcoin metric with ‘100% long hit rate’ predicts $23K BTC price floor

Bitcoin metric with '100% long hit rate' predicts $23K BTC price floor

Bitcoin (BTC) may offer investors a rare chance to buy at a support zone with a “100% long hit rate,” new analysis says.

In its latest Update piece on Aug. 29, crypto asset manager Capriole Investments told investors to watch for a BTC price dip to $24,000.

Capriole founder “very confident” in $23,000 BTC price support 

Bitcoin continues to track sideways around $26,000, but there is no shortage of market participants predicting further BTC price downside.

$25,000 remains a popular target, but for Capriole, long-term trend lines with an impressive history are of greater interest.

Chief among them are Bitcoin’s weekly support zone at $24,000 and its so-called “Electrical Price” (EP). This refers to the average miner’s electricity bill per BTC worldwide, and currently sits at just over $23,000.

EP has acted as strong support on long timeframes throughout Bitcoin’s history, with the dip to two-year lows in November 2022 being no exception. In late December last year, EP hit lows slightly above $14,000.

Capriole thus describes EP as a “historically hard price floor and level with a 100% long hit rate.”

“Together these price points give very strong confluence from a fundamental and technical perspective to the opportunity that $23-24K presents, should we get there,” it wrote about the technical weekly level and EP, respectively.

In part of a subsequent X post, Capriole additionally described the trend lines as “promising and rare structures” for Bitcoin “worth paying attention to.”

Continuing, Capriole founder Charles Edwards said that $23,000 should act as “rock solid support.”

“I am feeling very confident in $23K being a rock solid support and an incredible long-term opportunity if we get there in the next few weeks,” he told X subscribers on the day.

“Electrical Cost has a 100% hit rate through Bitcoin’s history. It’s my favorite long-term Bitcoin metric.”

Bitcoin Production Cost vs. Electrical Price vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Capriole Investments

Bitcoin miner pain on the horizon?

BTC/USD traded close to $26,000 at the Aug. 29 Wall Street open, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Related: Wen moon? Bitcoin halving cycle hints at Q4 as smart money ‘buys the rumor’

Analyzing miners’ financial buoyancy, James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, predicted a rerun of BTC price behavior from 2019, as the market laid the foundations of its next bull run.

“Bitcoin miner…

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