Despite the continuing rout on Chinese stock markets on Monday, shares in Alibaba (NASDAQ:BABA) escaped with only a fractional loss in Hong Kong, while its U.S. listing gained ahead of the e-commerce company’s fourth-quarter earnings report on Wednesday.
In Hong Kong, the shares dipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq-listed shares climbed 3.4% to $74.25 in morning trade.
Could there be some positive news to come on Wednesday that might bring a ray of hope to beleaguered Chinese investors?
There hasn’t been much joy for investors in Alibaba since its market debut in Hong Kong in November 2019. The shares debuted at HK$187 and climbed to a peak of HK$309 in October 2020. But since then it’s been nearly all downhill to its current level at around HK$71.
Alibaba Q4 Earnings Expectations
Two weeks ago the consensus expectation for Alibaba’s fourth-quarter earnings stood at $2.73 in U.S. dollar terms, down 2.15% from the same period a year ago. Since then, the consensus has dropped to $2.67 a share.
Revenue expectations were $37.68 billion two weeks ago, up 4.9% from a year ago. The consensus now stands at $36.49 billion.
Alibaba’s co-founders Jack Ma and Joe Tsai remain firm believers in the shares. They have been active buyers in recent months, with the pair buying a joint $152 million of the Nasdaq-listed stock, while Ma bought $50 million of the Hong Kong-listed shares.
Dennis Dick, CFA at TripleDTrader and co-host of Benzinga’s PreMarket Prep, said two weeks ago: “Part of me wants to buy Alibaba here, because it’s a ridiculously low valuation. But it was ridiculously low at HK$90 and then HK$80, and now it’s HK$70.”
What Could Revive Alibaba Stock?
Much of the decline in the share price has been down to the broad retreat from Chinese equities by foreign investors over the last three years.
This itself has been largely the result geopolitical tensions from trade sanctions between the U.S. and China, and concerns over domestic political meddling in the affairs and stock listings of China’s top companies.